A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
