🔗 Share this article

A mere 60 days prior when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.